Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Portland Trail Blazers vs Miami Heat · Jan 22, 2026

Updated Jan 23, 2026 4:03 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The quickest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Heat.
The Portland Trail Blazers have played at the 7th-speediest pace-of-play in the league with the home court advantage this year, which should boost plays for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out best in in the NBA with 14.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.9 free throws per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Trail Blazers, finding it easy to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

As it relates to scoring, the Miami Heat's subpar 45.0% field goal percentage settles in as the 3rd-weakest in the league over the last 20 games.
This year when they are on the road, opposing starting SFs have totaled 8.4 field goal attempts per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Portland Trail Blazers, identifying this as a difficult matchup.

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