Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/20/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Miami Heat · Jan 20, 2026

Updated Jan 21, 2026 2:48 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are away from home, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 6.1 3-point attempts per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Kings, designating this as a favorable matchup.
The speediest tempo team in the league this year has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out 5th-best in in the league with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
Over the last 5 games when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 4.2 foul shots per game (7th-highest in the league) vs. the Kings, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat check in as the least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this game from being pitted against the 5th-slowest pace home team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Kings).

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