Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/19/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat · Jan 19, 2026

Updated Jan 20, 2026 2:18 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regard to scoring, the Miami Heat's stellar 119.5 points per game ranks 5th-most in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on 3-pointers (highest in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, creating a positive matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league this year.
Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.8 foul shots per game (8th-most in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

Favors Under

The Golden State Warriors have played at the 10th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA on their home court this year, which ought to lead to fewer plays for the Heat.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat rank 10thworst in in the league as the visting team with a mere 10.9 offensive boards per game this year.

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