Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/17/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Jan 17, 2026

Updated Jan 18, 2026 1:34 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-112/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The most up-tempo tempo offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 8th-most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to raise opportunities for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 9th-best in in the NBA while on their home court with 11.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Thunder is a hard one for three-point shots; the opposition's starting SFs have shot for the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (25.5%).
Over the last 10 games when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 free throws per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) against the Thunder, struggling to draw fouls.

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