Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/15/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Jan 15, 2026

Updated Jan 16, 2026 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-113/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 6.7 three attempts per game (most in the league) against the Celtics, creating a good matchup.
The fastest tempo offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Heat have been the 8th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

In regard to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 7th-least aggressive team in the league over the last 25 games has been the Heat.
The Miami Heat will likely see a decline in plays in this contest from squaring off against the most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA this year (the Celtics).
Over the last 5 games when they are at home, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 1.5 foul shots per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, struggling to get to the charity stripe.

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