Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat · Jan 11, 2026

Updated Jan 12, 2026 1:39 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-129/+101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Heat have played at the fastest pace in the league this year.
The Miami Heat are expected to get a boost in opportunities today from competing against the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play home offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 5th-best in in the NBA while playing away from home with 13.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 5 games when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 4.2 free throws per game (7th-most in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat check in as the 7th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games in regard to three-point attempts.
This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 25.5% on threes (2nd-lowest in the league) vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder, making this a difficult matchup.

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