Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/29/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Dec 29, 2025

Updated Dec 30, 2025 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-116/-116).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Heat have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the quickest pace in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Denver is a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 3.2 foul shots per game this year when the Denver Nuggets are away from home (10th-most in the league).

Favors Under

This year when they are playing at home, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 1.1 threes per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a tough matchup.
The Miami Heat will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities in this contest from facing the 5th-least up-tempo pace away team in the NBA this year (the Denver Nuggets).
The Heat rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

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