Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/27/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 27, 2025

Updated Dec 28, 2025 1:17 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Heat rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games as the home team.
The Miami Heat have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.7 foul shots per game (5th-highest in the league) vs. the Indiana Pacers, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Pacers is a difficult one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (2.9).
The Indiana Pacers have played at the 9th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games, which should lead to decreased plays for the Heat.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Miami Heat grade out 8thworst in in the league when playing at home with a mere 10.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

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