Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Dec 26, 2025

Updated Dec 27, 2025 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-136/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With respect to offense, the Miami Heat's terrific 120.2 points per game ranks 5th-highest in the NBA this year.
This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting SFs have shot 60.1% on 3-pointers (best in the league) against the Hawks, creating a strong matchup.
The Heat have played at the quickest pace in the NBA this year.
The Hawks have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Miami Heat.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat check in as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (fewest in the NBA) against the Hawks, facing an uphill battle to get to the free-throw line.

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