Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/21/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Chicago Bulls vs Miami Heat · Nov 21, 2025

Updated Nov 22, 2025 12:59 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+101/-102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to offense, the Heat's excellent 123.6 points per game ranks strongest in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The fastest pace team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-fastest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Chicago Bulls).
The matchup against Chicago is a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a massive 5.1 free throws per game this year when the Bulls are playing at home (most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Bulls is a difficult one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have shot for the lowest three rate in the NBA this year (23.9%).
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA on the road with only 8.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

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