Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/19/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors · Nov 19, 2025

Updated Nov 20, 2025 3:44 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-130/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Heat have been the highest scoring offense in the league this year.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 47.0% on threes (highest in the league) vs. the Golden State Warriors, making this a good matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from competing against the 9th-speediest pace-of-play visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Golden State Warriors).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 1stworst in in the league with just 8.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.
This year, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.4 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the league) vs. the Warriors, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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