Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Nov 12, 2025

Updated Nov 13, 2025 4:54 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-125/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With respect to offense, the Heat's exceptional 125.6 points per game rates best in the league this year.
The quickest pace team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Heat will likely see a spike in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 4th-fastest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).
The matchup against Cleveland may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a monstrous 4.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games when the Cleveland Cavaliers are the visiting squad (2nd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a tough one for shot attempts from downtown; the other team's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.9).
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league with just 8.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

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