Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 11/5/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Nov 5, 2025

Updated Nov 6, 2025 1:52 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to shots from downtown, the Heat's excellent 37.1% rate of converted threes places 7th-strongest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Nuggets is a hard one for shot attempts from downtown; opposing starting SFs have totaled the 4th-least three attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.9).
The Miami Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (5th-least in the NBA).

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