Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/7/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers · Apr 7, 2025

Updated Apr 8, 2025 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has successfully made 48.2% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 12.0% higher than he's made from downtown overall this season.
Pelle Larsson has been on the court for 30.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 16.4 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year.
The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Pelle Larsson will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to boost player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Pelle Larsson comes in at the 23rd percentile for shots scored when playing at home, registering only 1.6 per game this year.
Pelle Larsson has accumulated 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's accumulated overall this year.
In regard to scoring, the Miami Heat's subpar 108.7 points per game rates 5th-fewest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have registered 11.3 points per game (lowest in the NBA) vs. the 76ers, marking this as a tough matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The slowest tempo home offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.

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