Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 5, 2025

Updated Apr 6, 2025 3:09 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-111/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has successfully made 53.3% of his shots from downtown over the last 5 games, 16.6% more than he's converted over the course of the year.
The Heat check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 5 games.
This year when they are at home, opposing starting SFs have averaged 7.0 field goals per game (3rd-most in the league) against the Bucks, designating this as a good matchup.
Pelle Larsson has attempted 2.8 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.7 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
Over the last 5 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 5.6 free throws per game (4th-most in the NBA) against the Bucks, easily managing to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

Pelle Larsson has converted 1.6 shots made from the field per game while playing at home this year, placing him in the 24th percentile out of all players in the league.
The least up-tempo pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
The Bucks have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should reduce plays for the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds save possession and create additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat grade out 1stworst in in the league while at home with a mere 8.2 offensive boards per game this year.

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