Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/3/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 3, 2025

Updated Apr 4, 2025 2:04 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has made 63.3% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games, 25.6% higher than he's converted from three in all games this year.
When it comes to three-point shots, the Heat's remarkable 48.8% rate of drained threes rates strongest in the league over the last 5 games.
The Miami Heat are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this contest from squaring off against the most up-tempo tempo team in the league this year (the Memphis Grizzlies).
Pelle Larsson has sunk 90.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 15 games at home, 14.8% more than he's made overall this year with the home court advantage.
Pelle Larsson will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home city tends to improve stat production in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 9.7 shot attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Grizzlies, making this a tough matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA while playing at home this year.
The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Memphis Grizzlies may be a difficult one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a mere 2.6 foul shots per game over the last 12 games (3rd-least in the league).

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