Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Washington Wizards vs Miami Heat · Mar 31, 2025

Updated Apr 1, 2025 3:59 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has successfully made 53.8% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games on the road, 10.2% higher than he's put through the net in all games this season away from home.
Pelle Larsson has converted 62.5% of his treys over the last 5 games, 26.4% higher than he's converted from downtown in all games this season.
The Heat check in as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 50.2% on shots from the field (4th-highest in the NBA) against the Wizards, branding this as a strong matchup.
The Miami Heat will likely see a rise in opportunities today from squaring off against the 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Wizards).

Favors Under

Pelle Larsson has played 12.7 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the league: 24th percentile.
The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Heat rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Pelle Larsson should experience a decrease in efficiency in all facets of the game considering playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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