Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2025

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 7, 2025

Updated Mar 8, 2025 4:35 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has successfully made 59.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 14.4% more than he's sunk in all games this season.
Pelle Larsson has converted 51.2% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 15.1% higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year.
As it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 10th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Heat.
Pelle Larsson will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage usually improves player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 40.6% on shots from the field (3rd-weakest in the league) against the Timberwolves, designating this as a challenging matchup.
The most sluggish pace-of-play home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays today from facing the 7th-least up-tempo pace team in the league this year (the Minnesota Timberwolves).
The Miami Heat check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Timberwolves is a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 2.4 foul shots per game this year (10th-least in the NBA).

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