Paul Reed Points - Player Prop Bet 2/14/2024

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Paul Reed

NBA · Player Props

Paul Reed

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat · Feb 14, 2024

Updated Feb 15, 2024 2:58 AM EST

Analysis

Paul Reed Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul Reed has converted 4.4 field goals per game over the last 10 games, 1.6 more than he's sunk in all games this season.
Paul Reed has been on the court for 27.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.9 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Paul Reed is expected to get a boost in efficiency in all stat categories in light of holding the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Paul Reed ranks in the 18th percentile for shot attempts from downtown, putting up 0.6 per game this year.
Paul Reed has averaged 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 1.1 more than he's averaged in all games this season at home.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to 3-point attempts.
Over the last 5 games when they have the home court advantage, the other team has averaged 39.2% on threes (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, resulting in a good matchup.
The number of points totaled against Bam Adebayo has been remarkably low (11.9 per game) when defending fellow starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).

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