Paul Reed Points - Player Prop Bet 1/16/2024

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Paul Reed

NBA · Player Props

Paul Reed

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Denver Nuggets · Jan 16, 2024

Updated Jan 17, 2024 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Paul Reed Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul Reed has sunk 4.0 baskets per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's made in all games this season.
The 7th-fastest tempo home team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games when playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
When playing away from home, the Denver Nuggets have given up the 10th-least offensive boards per game (10.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Paul Reed should see a rise in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of controlling the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Paul Reed rates in the 16th percentile for shot attempts from beyond the arc, averaging 0.5 per game this year.
The Philadelphia 76ers rank as the 7th-least aggressive offense in the league at home this year in regard to 3-point attempts.
This matchup is a good one for field goals; opposing squads have put up the 8th-highest FG% in the NBA over the last 5 games (49.3%).
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Over the last 5 games, opposing clubs have attempted 26.2 free throws per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Nuggets, succeeding in their efforts to draw fouls.

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