Paul Reed Points - Player Prop Bet 1/10/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Paul Reed

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 10, 2024

Updated Jan 11, 2024 3:30 AM EST

Analysis

Paul Reed Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-143/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 6th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup vs. Onyeka Okongwu is a good one for shots from the field; when defending other starting Cs this year, they have converted a massive 60.6% of their field goal attempts (86th percentile).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased plays for the 76ers.
Paul Reed has attempted 1.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. Onyeka Okongwu is a favorable one for drawing fouls; when Okongwu is on his home court fellow starting Cs this year, they have attempted a massive 4.5 foul shots per game (89th percentile).

Favors Under

Paul Reed has attempted 0.6 shots from downtown per game on the road this year, placing him in the 18th percentile among all players in the league.
The 8th-slowest pace road team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers have been the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Hawks have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.6) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Paul Reed will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court generally reduces player performance in all stat categories.