Paul Reed Points - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2023

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Paul Reed

NBA · Player Props

Paul Reed

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers · Dec 25, 2023

Updated Dec 26, 2023 1:59 AM EST

Analysis

Paul Reed Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+106/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The rate of field goals sunk against Bam Adebayo has been very high (68.5%) when squaring off against other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The 8th-speediest pace offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Paul Reed has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 22.2% more than he's sunk overall this season.

Favors Under

Among all players in the league, Paul Reed ranks in the 16th percentile for shots from behind the three-point arc without the home court advantage, tallying 0.5 per game this year.
When it comes to 3-point attempts, the 6th-least aggressive team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Philadelphia 76ers.
Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have secured 12.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) vs. the Miami Heat (continuing possessions that can create extra chances for offense).
The matchup against Bam Adebayo is a challenging one for getting to the free-throw line; when guarding other starting Cs this year, they have attempted just 2.5 foul shots per game (11th percentile).

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