Paul George Points - Player Prop Bet 1/21/2025

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NBA · Player Props

Paul George

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 21, 2025

Updated Jan 22, 2025 2:44 AM EST

Analysis

Paul George Points Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+112/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paul George has successfully made 3.8 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's converted from three in all games this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Paul George registers in the 80th percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 30.8 minutes per game while playing on the road this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the league over the last 20 games with the home court advantage, which should boost opportunities for the 76ers.
Paul George has sunk 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 16.1% more than he's sunk overall this season.
As a team, the 76ers have been very successful at getting to the foul line of late: best in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, tallying 24.5 free throw attempts per game.

Favors Under

Paul George has tallied 4.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while playing away from home, 1.4 higher than he's tallied overall this year on the road.
This year, opposing starting PFs have tallied 3.7 3-point attempts per game (4th-fewest in the league) vs. the Nuggets, making this a difficult matchup.
The most lethargic pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets is a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 2.6 free throws per game this year (least in the league).