Patrick Baldwin Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/31/2024

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Patrick Baldwin Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Miami Heat · Mar 31, 2024

Updated Mar 31, 2024 10:07 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Baldwin Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Wizards check in as the 7th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games with respect to shot attempts from downtown.
This year, the other team's starting PFs have shot 43.4% on threes (2nd-highest in the NBA) against the Heat, identifying this as a good matchup.
The Wizards have played at the speediest pace in the league this year.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 23.8% higher than he's converted overall this season.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. will possess the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage generally boosts stat production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Patrick Baldwin Jr. has successfully made 15.2% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games, 14.6% less than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this year.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has played 10.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the least-used players in the NBA: 17th percentile.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA away from their home city this year, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
The matchup against the Miami Heat may be a tough one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the league).

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