Patrick Baldwin Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Patrick Baldwin Jr.

F · Washington Wizards

Points

Washington Wizards vs Boston Celtics · Mar 17, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 10:56 PM EST

Analysis

Patrick Baldwin Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Patrick Baldwin Jr. has successfully made 56.5% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 5.7% more than he's converted in all games this season with the home court advantage.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has committed 1.0 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the least lowest-fouling players in the league (22nd percentile).
The Wizards have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 25.0% more than he's sunk overall this season.
Patrick Baldwin Jr. is expected to get a boost in efficiency for all stats as a result of holding the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Patrick Baldwin Jr. has been on the court for 8.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the least-used players in the league: 13th percentile.
The matchup vs. the Celtics is a challenging one; they have allowed the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PFs this year (14.5).
The Boston Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court, which should decrease opportunities for the Wizards.
The Washington Wizards have been the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (8th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, struggling to get to the free-throw line.