Pat Connaughton Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/28/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Nov 28, 2023

Updated Nov 29, 2023 12:22 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has posted 4.2 defensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's posted overall this season.
Among all players in the NBA, Pat Connaughton comes in at the 12th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a lowly 1.1 fouls per game while playing away from home this year.
The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Heat have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.
Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player production for all stats.

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