Pat Connaughton Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 4/22/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Apr 22, 2023

Updated Apr 22, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+155/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has put up 4.0 defensive rebounds per game away from home this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile -- among the NBA's best by this standard.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Bucks.
Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage tends to decreases player performance across the board.

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