Pat Connaughton Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Rebounds

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 29, 2023

Updated Mar 29, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has averaged 1.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 0.6 more than he's averaged over the course of the season.
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games.
The Pacers have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more plays for the Bucks.

Favors Under

Pat Connaughton has tallied 2.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Pacers have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production across the board.

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