Pat Connaughton Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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Pat Connaughton

NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Dallas Mavericks · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In terms of offense, the Bucks's excellent 118.1 points per game as the away team measures as the 6th-most in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on the road, opposing teams have averaged 34.0 three attempts per game (10th-lowest in the league) vs. the Mavericks, marking this as a challenging matchup.
The Bucks have played at the 3rd-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
The Milwaukee Bucks are expected to see a spike in plays in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-speediest tempo home offense in the league this year (the Mavericks).
Pat Connaughton has successfully made a terrific 100.0% of his foul shot attempts this year, quite a bit more than his 70.0 rate last year.

Favors Under

In contrast to last season's 42.8% clip, Pat Connaughton's field goal ability has fallen this season to 34.5%.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, the other team has secured 11.9 offensive boards per game (6th-highest in the league) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (lengthening possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).

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