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Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton Points
Player Prop - 11/17/2023

Charlotte Hornets vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Out of all players in the league, Pat Connaughton measures in the 24th percentile for personal fouls, tallying only 1.2 fouls per game this year.

The Bucks rank as the 7th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.

The 7th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks will likely see an increase in plays today from being pitted against the 3rd-most up-tempo tempo away team in the league over the last 5 games (the Charlotte Hornets).

This year when they are the visiting team, opposing clubs have brought down 10.1 offensive rebounds per game (7th-lowest in the league) vs. the Hornets (diminishing possessions that could otherwise spark added opportunities for offense).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Relative to last season's 34.2% clip, Pat Connaughton's 3-point prowess has declined this season to 22.6%.

The matchup vs. the Hornets is a favorable one; as the home team they have allowed the 3rd-most points per game in the league to their opposition this year (119.4).

The Bucks check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Pat Connaughton has converted a lowly 66.7% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly less than his 59.2 rate last year.

This matchup is a good one for getting to the charity stripe; when the Charlotte Hornets have the home court advantage, the other team has attempted a monstrous 28.6 free throws per game this year (most in the NBA).

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