Pat Connaughton Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 16, 2023 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has tallied 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least foul-prone players in the league (18th percentile).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the 3rd-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Milwaukee Bucks check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Heat is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing clubs have attempted a lowly 21.1 foul shots per game this year (3rd-least in the league).

Favors Under

Pat Connaughton has converted just 37.8% of his shots from the field this year, significantly lower than his 45.6 mark last year.
This matchup is a favorable one for 3-pointers; opposing clubs have averaged the 3rd-most three-point shots per game in the NBA this year (13.0).
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games, which should reduce possessions for the Bucks.
Pat Connaughton has successfully made just 64.0% of his free throw attempts this season, significantly lower than his 87.5 rate last season.
As a team, the Milwaukee Bucks have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line in recent games: worst in the league over the last 10 games on their home court, averaging just 18.8 foul shots per game.