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Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton Made 3 Point Shots
Player Prop - 11/28/2023

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks

Pat Connaughton Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+165/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Pat Connaughton has successfully made 38.9% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games, 9.9% higher than he's made from 3-point range over the course of the year.

Among all players in the NBA, Pat Connaughton comes in at the 12th percentile for personal fouls, averaging a lowly 1.1 fouls per game while playing away from home this year.

With respect to shots from downtown, the Milwaukee Bucks's excellent 39.0% rate of converted threes ranks 3rd-highest in the NBA this year.

The 3rd-speediest pace-of-play home team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Heat have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In contrast to last year's 5.3 clip, Pat Connaughton's shot attempts from downtown have diminished this year to 3.3 per game.

This matchup is a strong one for threes; when the Heat are playing at home, their opposition has posted the 4th-highest three percentage in the NBA against them this year (38.1%).

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league over the last 5 games on their home court, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Bucks.

Offensive rebounds save possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Bucks rank 4thworst in in the league without the home court advantage with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage usually worsens player production for all stats.

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