Pat Connaughton Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/29/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Pat Connaughton

G · Milwaukee Bucks

Made 3 Point Shots

Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 29, 2023

Updated Mar 29, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Pat Connaughton Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-152/+117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +152 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pat Connaughton has attempted 5.6 three-point shots per game this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile out of all players in the league.
The Milwaukee Bucks have been the most aggressive offense in the league over the last 20 games while playing on the road in terms of attempts from downtown.
The matchup against Indiana is a good one for threes; when the Pacers are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have posted the 30th-highest three rate in the league this year (42.7%).
The Milwaukee Bucks have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 15 games.
The Pacers have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games in their home stadium, which should lead to more plays for the Bucks.

Favors Under

Pat Connaughton has tallied 2.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 0.9 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
While on their home court, the Pacers have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Pat Connaughton will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens stat production across the board.