Paolo Banchero Points - Player Prop Bet 12/21/2023

NBA · Player Props

Paolo Banchero

F · Orlando Magic

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Orlando Magic · Dec 21, 2023

Updated Dec 22, 2023 1:18 AM EST

Analysis

Paolo Banchero Points Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Paolo Banchero has attempted 20.4 shots per game over the last 5 games while playing away from home, 4.2 higher than he's attempted overall this season on the road.
Paolo Banchero has tallied 33.3 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 88th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.
The matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks is a favorable one for 3-point shots; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the 24th-most shots from downtown per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The Magic have played at the 6th-most up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage.
The Magic are expected to see a rise in opportunities in this contest from being pitted against the fastest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Bucks).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Paolo Banchero lands in the 80th percentile for technical fouls, registering a monstrous 0.1 fouls per game when playing away from home this year.
Offensive rebounds save possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, but the Magic grade out 3rdworst in in the league as the visting team with a mere 9.2 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting team, the other team has grabbed 12.4 offensive rebounds per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Bucks (lengthening possessions that can produce further opportunities for offense).
Over the last 25 games, opposing starting PFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (12th-fewest in the NBA) against the Bucks, making it tough to get to the foul line.
Paolo Banchero is expected to experience a decrease in output in all stat categories on account of being on the road in this game.