Obi Toppin Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2024

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Obi Toppin

NBA · Player Props

Obi Toppin

F · Indiana Pacers

Rebounds

Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 25, 2024

Updated Feb 25, 2024 10:23 PM EST

Analysis

Obi Toppin Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Obi Toppin has tallied 1.1 offensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the 75th percentile -- among the NBA's best by this metric over this stretch of games.
In contrast to last season's 15.7 rate, Obi Toppin's playing time has jumped this season to 22.5 minutes per game.
The Pacers have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the NBA while on their home court this year.
The Pacers are expected to see an increase in opportunities today from squaring off against the 7th-quickest pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Obi Toppin will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally increases player performance in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Obi Toppin has been called for 1.9 personal fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 1.0 fouls per game last season.
The Pacers rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have allowed the 4th-most offensive boards per game (11.5) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

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