Obi Toppin Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/2/2023

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Obi Toppin

NBA · Player Props

Obi Toppin

F · Indiana Pacers

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers · Dec 2, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Obi Toppin Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Obi Toppin has tallied a whopping 0.9 offensive boards per game this season, quite a bit more than his 0.5 offensive boards per game last season.
The Indiana Pacers have played at the quickest pace in the league when playing at home this year.
The Pacers are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from facing the 9th-fastest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Miami Heat).
This year when they are playing at home, opposing squads have collected 9.6 offensive boards per game (5th-lowest in the league) vs. the Heat (diminishing possessions that could otherwise spark extra opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, but the Pacers grade out 3rdworst in in the NBA as the away team with a mere 8.6 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.
Obi Toppin will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually reduces player performance for all stats.

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