Obi Toppin Points - Player Prop Bet 1/14/2024

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Obi Toppin

NBA · Player Props

Obi Toppin

F · Indiana Pacers

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers · Jan 14, 2024

Updated Jan 14, 2024 8:38 PM EST

Analysis

Obi Toppin Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Obi Toppin has made 53.9% of his shots from downtown over the last 10 games, 16.5% higher than he's made from beyond the arc overall this season.
When it comes to offense, the Indiana Pacers's stellar 126.1 points per game settles in as the highest in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Denver Nuggets is a tough one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the NBA to opposing teams this year (111.1).
The Pacers have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Obi Toppin has converted 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 21.8% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the league, Obi Toppin lands in the 75th percentile for personal fouls, compiling an enormous 2.3 fouls per game this year.
The Indiana Pacers are expected to experience a decrease in opportunities in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
The Indiana Pacers have been the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Over the last 20 games, their opposition has collected 11.1 offensive boards per game (8th-most in the NBA) against the Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added opportunities for offense).
This matchup may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; when the Denver Nuggets are at home, the other team has attempted a massive 23.1 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (5th-most in the league).

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