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Obi Toppin

Obi Toppin Points
Player Prop - 11/30/2023

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

Obi Toppin Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Relative to last year's 2.7 rate, Obi Toppin's shots drained have increased this year to 6.8 per game.

Obi Toppin has averaged a terrific 26.4 minutes per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 14.9 minutes per game last season.

In terms of offense, the Pacers's remarkable 127.6 points per game with the home court advantage settles in as the strongest in the league this year.

The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a strong one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 23rd-most 3-point attempts per game in the league since the start of last season (4.6).

The fastest pace road offense in the NBA this year has been the Indiana Pacers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This year when they are at home, opposing teams have averaged 38.1% on 3-pointers (4th-best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup.

The Miami Heat have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 10 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Pacers.

The Pacers check in as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

This year when they are on the road, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (9th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, finding it difficult to draw fouls.

Obi Toppin will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home court usually decreases stat production for all stats.

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