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Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic Points
Player Prop - 11/4/2024

Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings

Nikola Jovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

As it relates to shots from downtown, the Heat's exceptional 37.5% rate of converted threes with the home court advantage places 10th-highest in the NBA since the start of last season.

The matchup against the Sacramento Kings is a good one for field goals; opposing starting PFs have compiled the 6th-highest FG% in the NBA this year (52.6%).

The Kings have played at the 8th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should increase plays for the Heat.

Nikola Jovic figures to get a boost in effectiveness across the board due to enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jovic has sunk 40.8% of his shots from the field while playing at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 22nd percentile out of all players in the NBA.

The 3rd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.

Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about more chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 5thworst in in the NBA with only 9.4 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.

Among all players in the league, Nikola Jovic rates in the 19th percentile for foul-shot effectiveness with a subpar 67.1% rate since the start of last season.

Over the last 20 games, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 2.4 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) vs. the Sacramento Kings, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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