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Nikola Jovic

Nikola Jovic Points
Player Prop - 2/13/2024

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat

Nikola Jovic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 1.8 3-pointers per game (24th-most in the league) against the Milwaukee Bucks, making this a strong matchup.

The Heat are expected to see a rise in possessions today from squaring off against the 4th-quickest pace home team in the league this year (the Milwaukee Bucks).

The Bucks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.4) in the league to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jovic has made 97.5% of his foul shots over the last 11 games on the road, 45.5% higher than he's converted over the course of the year while on the road.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last year's 0.9 clip, Nikola Jovic's personal fouls per game have surged this year to 1.9.

The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 20 games as the road team.

The Heat check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

The matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game over the last 25 games (15th-least in the league).

Nikola Jovic will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court generally worsens player performance in all stat categories.

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