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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 3/9/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Nuggets are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from sharing the court with the 5th-quickest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Jazz).

The Nuggets rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jokic has converted 94.3% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 11.5% more than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Walker Kessler has been very high (4.0 foul shots per game) when guarding opposing starting Cs this year (90th percentile).

Nikola Jokic will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally boosts stat production in all facets of the game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc.

The matchup against Walker Kessler is a hard one for three-pointers; when Kessler is playing on the road and guarding other starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a lowly 21.8% of their attempts from downtown (13th percentile).

The Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year.

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