Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Boston Celtics · Mar 7, 2024

Updated Mar 8, 2024 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 26.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has attempted 4.2 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's attempted overall this season.
Among all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic places in the 92nd percentile for playing time, logging a colossal 34.1 minutes per game this year.
As it relates to scoring, the Nuggets's outstanding 50.6% field goal rate at home measures as the 3rd-highest in the league this year.
The matchup against the Celtics is a tough one for scoring; opposing squads have put up the lowest field goal rate in the league over the last 25 games (44.3%).
The matchup against Kristaps Porzingis is a strong one for shots from the field; when matched up against fellow starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a monstrous 6.0 shots made from the field per game (100th percentile).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic comes in at the 89th percentile for personal fouls, registering a massive 2.6 fouls per game this year.
The 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home city, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets rank as the 8th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year, opposing clubs have come down with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (6th-most in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics (preserving possessions that can generate more opportunities for offense).