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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 3/5/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has made 67.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 15 games at home, 6.1% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this season while at home.

Among all players in the league, Nikola Jokic registers in the 91st percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 34.1 minutes per game at home this year.

The matchup against the Suns is a challenging one for 3-pointers; the other team has compiled the 5th-lowest three percentage in the league over the last 15 games (34.4%).

The Phoenix Suns have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games, which should raise opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets grade out 7thbest in in the NBA with 11.8 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jokic has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the highest-fouling players in the league (89th percentile).

The matchup vs. Jusuf Nurkic is a challenging one for three-point attempts; when facing opposing starting Cs this year, they have attempted a mere 1.4 shots from behind the three-point arc per game (18th percentile).

The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the league over the last 20 games.

The Suns have allowed the most offensive boards per game (12.8) in the league to opposing squads over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's lackluster 20.3 free throws per game measures as the 3rd-worst in the NBA this year.

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