Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 3/2/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 2, 2024

Updated Mar 3, 2024 4:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has converted 12.2 baskets per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.5 higher than he's made over the course of the season while playing away from home.
Nikola Jokic has converted 56.6% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games on the road, 10.6% higher than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year when playing away from home.
Nikola Jokic has played 33.6 minutes per game away from home this year, ranking in the 91st percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The number of 3-point shots sunk against Anthony Davis has been quite high (0.8 per game) when facing fellow starting Cs this year (97th percentile).
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play team in the league over the last 25 games (the Los Angeles Lakers).

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has averaged 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 6th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
The 2nd-least up-tempo pace away team in the NBA over the last 20 games has been the Nuggets.
The Lakers have allowed the 2nd-most offensive boards per game (11.9) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Anthony Davis has been quite low this year (2.5 foul shot attempts per game: 7th percentile).

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