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Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic Points
Player Prop - 2/29/2024

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -112.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 9.7 buckets per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 98th percentile among all players in the league.

Out of all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic lands in the 91st percentile for playing time, posting a massive 33.8 minutes per game this year.

The Nuggets rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).

The Miami Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.5) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Nikola Jokic will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home generally boosts player performance in all stat categories.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Nikola Jokic has committed 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.8 higher than he's committed overall this season.

This year, opposing squads have averaged 36.7 3-point attempts per game (7th-most in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, creating a strong matchup.

The number of points totaled against Bam Adebayo has been quite low (12.0 per game) when defending opposing starting Cs this year (3rd percentile).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest tempo in the league this year.

The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Denver Nuggets.

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