Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 25, 2024

Updated Feb 26, 2024 3:33 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-137/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has converted 10.2 shots made from the field per game this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among all players in the league.
Nikola Jokic has made 58.3% of his shots from downtown over the last 15 games on the road, 11.9% more than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the year when playing on the road.
Nikola Jokic has been on the court for 33.8 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 91st percentile.
The Denver Nuggets will likely get a boost in possessions in this game from squaring off against the 4th-speediest tempo offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Golden State Warriors).
The Nuggets check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has been called for 2.5 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 86th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone.
The Nuggets have been the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The matchup vs. Draymond Green is a difficult one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when matched up against other starting Cs this year, they have sunk a lowly 25.1% of their attempts from downtown (7th percentile).
The 2nd-most sluggish pace away team in the league over the last 15 games has been the Nuggets.
This year when they are the visiting team, the other team has brought down 11.4 offensive boards per game (7th-highest in the NBA) against the Golden State Warriors (maintaining possessions that can result in extra chances for offense).