Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:58 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has posted 32.8 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.5 more than he's posted over the course of the year.
Nikola Jokic has sunk 74.8% of his shots from the field over the last 15 games, 13.4% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.
The number of shot attempts from the field against Brook Lopez has been very high (12.0 per game) when guarding other starting Cs this year (100th percentile).
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the fastest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6thbest in in the league with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has accumulated 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 0.8 more than he's accumulated overall this year at home.
The most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Milwaukee Bucks have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
With respect to getting to the charity stripe, the Denver Nuggets's unimpressive 21.0 foul shots per game comes in as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
The number of fouls drawn by opposing starting Cs against Brook Lopez has been very low this year (2.5 foul shot attempts per game: 7th percentile).

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