Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/25/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors · Dec 25, 2023

Updated Dec 26, 2023 12:38 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has converted 10.3 field goals per game this year, ranking in the 98th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Among all players in the league, Nikola Jokic lands in the 87th percentile for playing time, putting up a monstrous 33.5 minutes per game this year.
The matchup against Kevon Looney is a strong one; he has allowed a whopping 16.1 points per game when guarding fellow starting Cs this year (96th percentile).
The Nuggets have been the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are at home, opposing squads have come down with 9.7 offensive rebounds per game (6th-lowest in the league) vs. the Warriors (turning over possessions that could otherwise create additional opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic measures in the 84th percentile for personal fouls, putting up a massive 2.6 fouls per game while on his home court this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games.
As a team, the Nuggets have been bad at drawing fouls: 4th-worst in the league this year, averaging a lowly 20.3 free throw attempts per game.

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