Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/16/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Dec 16, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 1:45 AM UTC

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-145/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has attempted 19.5 shots per game this year, quite a bit more than his 16.1 mark last year.
Nikola Jokic has been on the court for 32.9 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 87th percentile.
Over the last 10 games, opposing starting Cs have compiled 17.6 points per game (27th-highest in the NBA) against the Thunder, branding this as a positive matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Denver Nuggets will likely see a spike in opportunities today from squaring off against the 3rd-quickest pace offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Thunder).
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and lead to additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

As it relates to shot attempts from downtown, the 6th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-most sluggish pace in the league at home this year.
The Thunder have allowed the most offensive rebounds per game (14.0) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).

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