Nikola Jokic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/11/2023

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Nikola Jokic

NBA · Player Props

Nikola Jokic

C · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · Jan 11, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Nikola Jokic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-118/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nikola Jokic has successfully made 9.4 shots made from the field per game this year, putting him in the 97th percentile out of all players in the league.
Nikola Jokic has successfully made 96.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games at home, 15.0% more than he's made over the course of the year while on his home court.
Nikola Jokic has been on the court for 33.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 88th percentile.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the 5th-highest scoring offense in the league this year.
The matchup vs. the Suns is a good one for scoring; opposing squads have averaged the 2nd-most baskets per game in the NBA this year (39.7).

Favors Under

Nikola Jokic has committed 2.5 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile -- [AMONG_THE_LEAGUES_MOST_FOUL_PRONE].
The Suns have allowed the 4th-least offensive rebounds per game (11.7) in the league to their opposition this year while playing on the road (which also eliminates additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 2nd-least aggressive offense in the league playing at home this year as it relates to [THREE_POINTERS_ATTEMPTS_SMALL].
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Suns.
The matchup against the Suns is a challenging one for threes; the opposing team's starting PGs have posted the 7th-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (32.0%).

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